Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $29,000 on Aug. 3 as market concerns over largest global exchange Binance reignited BTC price downside.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price analysis “expects” support retest
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action heading lower before a modest comeback into the Wall Street open.
Rumors over new United States legal action against Binance made for a disappointing 24 hours for Bitcoin bulls after a brief trip above $30,000.
With the trading range still firmly in place, monitoring resource Material Indicators forecast a further bearish support retest to come.
Want to know what changed on the #Bitcoin Daily chart in the U.S. overnight hours?
According to the #TrendPrecognition algos, the probability of a downside move in the Daily TF increased from >75% to >84%.
Expecting to test support at the trendline. #NFA https://t.co/FtR25ruHHr pic.twitter.com/34v1OoZgp9
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 3, 2023
“If you’re surprised, confused or think the bi-directional volatility is over then you haven’t been paying attention,” part of prior analysis read.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile suggested that current BTC price behavior was merely the continuation of an all-too-familiar pattern.
The past few weeks have been all the same.
1. Price grinds down
2. Shorts get aggressive
3. Shorts get squeezed/Price goes up
4. Spot starts selling
5. Price rolls over.
Rinse & Repeat.
Until spot starts bidding after these squeezes we’ll just keep doing these full retraces. pic.twitter.com/vGgKUFI00f
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 2, 2023
“I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again… The longer price hovers around here, the bigger the move following it, will be,” he added on the day.
Others made light of the Binance narrative. Ki Young Ju, CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, argued that panic over solvency issues would turn out to be a non-event.
“I’ve heard about the ‘bank run/insolvency risk on Binance’ a hundred times for years, but their user balances always tell a different story,” he tweeted alongside charts showing the exchange’s BTC and Ether (ETH) reserves.
Binance BTC, ETH reserves charts. Source: Ki Young Ju/Twitter
Bitcoin volatility prepares to undercut stocks, gold
Overall, however, Bitcoin volatility remains at historically-low levels.
Related: Bitcoin price risks $25K dip despite ‘macro pivot point’ — New analysis
According to the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL), weekly volatility was headed toward record lows seen at the start of 2023.
Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
This chimes with existing comparisons to January, with Bollinger Bands data likewise echoing the period immediately prior to Bitcoin’s Q1 breakout.
Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, additionally noted that 10-day realized volatility was almost below that of U.S. stocks, bonds and gold.
10-day realized volatility for #bitcoin near falling below average of stocks, bonds, and gold. pic.twitter.com/QKq5HItY80
— Dylan LeClair (@DylanLeClair_) August 3, 2023
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.